Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad*
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were derived from the Millennium Declaration adopted in 2000 at the Millennium Summit, which was attended by 156 heads of state or government. There are 8 goals and 18 targets. The 8 MDGs are:
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger;
Achieve universal primary education;
Promote gender equality and empower woman;
Reduce child mortality;
Improve maternal health;
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases;
Ensure environmental sustainability; and
Establish partnerships for development.
The first 7 goals and the 10 targets under them are the ones to be pursued by the developing countries, while the 8th goal involves action by the developing countries in terms of further expansion of the role of market and globalization but also calls for assistance to be provided to them by the developed countries.
The MDGs are now being widely discussed in seminars, workshops, and campaigns within the UN system and around the world. As required, the developing countries have also been preparing, on aid conditionality, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) with reference to these goals. That is, unless the PRSP is in place in a particular country, it cannot expect to receive foreign assistance for poverty reduction purposes. The targets under the goals have been formulated as global aggregates, i.e. in terms of aggregation over developing countries pursuing these goals. Of course, individual countries are expected to follow these targets in formulating their own strategies. The targets to be achieved have been set for 2015 with reference to 1990 as the base year.
The targets set are to reduce the relevant deficit by half or by two-thirds or by three-fourths or to be fully alleviated. In so far as poverty reduction is concerned, for example, the targets are to reduce the proportion of extremely poor people to half by 2015 in relation to 1990, and also hunger by the same proportion.
There is an ethical question relating to certain targets, which arises when the question is asked: which half, which two-thirds, or which three-fourths? Also, the Millennium Declaration was based on the United Nations Declaration on Universal Human Rights. But, in the way the MDGs have been formulated, the Universal Human Rights are not properly reflected. Therefore, there is a question mark relating to the universal ownership of the MDGs among the peoples of the concerned countries.
At least two conditions must be fulfilled, if a country has to achieve or at least make significant progress towards the MDG targets. One relates to the capacity of the country to implement policies and programs effectively. In most developing countries, governance is poor in terms of human capability on one hand and lack of transparency and accountability on the other. That is, inefficiency and corruption are the two hallmarks of governance in these countries. It is, therefore, essential that the developing countries take necessary steps to establish good governance, including rule of law and improvement in the economic and social management capacity. Obviously, these are involved tasks and cannot be fulfilled quickly. But it is crucial that governance targets are set and solid progress towards those targets made by taking necessary action with determination.
The other crucial condition is that they have access to necessary resources. In most low-income countries, the domestic resources are limited; many are heavily burdened with foreign debt. Therefore, debt cancellation for the heavily indebted developing countries and increased official development assistance (ODA) need to be provided to all the poor and resource-constrained countries to enable them to implement appropriate policies and programs to achieve the MDGs. Currently, conditionality imposed in relation to both ODA and debt cancellation are such that it is very unlikely that aid resources available to these countries will significantly improve. There are some initiatives relating to debt cancellation for Sub-Saharan African countries. But, how far the initiatives will translate into real money being made available remains to be seen. Regarding ODA, the OECD countries promised to provide 0.7 per cent of their GDPs annually to the developing countries and territories. But, so far the level reached is 0.22 per cent, which currently converts to around US$60 billion a year.
As estimated by the UN Millennium Project, developing countries would need US$140 billion in ODA in 2005, made up of US$74 billion as budgetary support to finance the MDGs in the low-income countries, US$18 billion for non-MDG investments in the low-income countries, US$30 billion for the middle income countries, and the balance to meet international operations including global public goods such as scientific research. It has also been indicated that the MDG-related ODA would rise to US$108 billion by 2015, implying that the total ODA required in that year would rise to US$177 billion, assuming that ODA for various non-MDG purposes remains the same as in 2005. The total projected ODA for 2005 and 2015 would account for 0.51 per cent and 0.56 per cent of the OECD countries' estimated gross national incomes (GNIs) for the respective years, substantially below the target of 0.7 per cent.
In the year 2004, the estimated ODA has been US$60 billion so that another US$80 billion was needed to make up the projected US$140 billion in 2005. But, in reality, the ODA in 2005 may be only slightly larger than in 2004. At the same time, developed countries have not eased the access of exports from developing countries into their markets, despite agreements reached under the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations. Para-tariff, non-tariff, and other barriers are imposed, restricting imports from developing countries. Also, export opportunities for many agricultural commodities from developing to developed countries are constrained by heavy agricultural subsidies in the latter.
In fact, subsidies to the tune of about US$1 billion a day is provided to agriculture in the developed countries and about US$2 per day per cattle in Europe. Also, unrealistic labor and eco-standards are applied at times. On the other hand, precipitous trade liberalization put in place in the developing countries, on aid conditionalities, essentially means import liberalization for these countries, which hurts them, particularly their poor farmers and workers constraining both employment and production as a result of unfavorable competition both at home and abroad.
Clearly, therefore, developing countries remain disadvantaged, often severely, in relation to their export prospects on the one hand and limited ODA on the other. It appears both because of inward-looking attitudes of the developed countries and aid-conditionalities imposed by them, that significant increase in the ODA and debt relief will not occur in the coming years. Clearly, therefore, the developing countries, in general, will remain resource-constrained on one hand and management capacity-constrained on the other so that progress towards the poverty reduction targets in most countries will not be achieved.
However, given that India and China together account for about half the population of the low-income countries and these countries are likely to make good progress in poverty reduction; there might be significant progress in relation to poverty reduction targets globally. But, a large number of countries in Africa, Asia and elsewhere will not be able to achieve these targets. While it is possible that some of the other targets under certain goals could be achieved by certain low-income countries, the poverty reduction targets would remain elusive for most of them. It emerges, therefore, that the MDGs are yet another agenda floated by the United Nations, which will remain unfulfilled in a large number of low-income countries around the world.
>> Dr. Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad is President, Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA), and Chairman, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP)
